By Michael Delue
A new web tool from University of Alaska Fairbanks scientists makes data for agricultural planning in Alaska more accessible.
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| Maps by UAF Scenarios Network for Alaska and Arctic Planning. These maps show how plant hardiness zones in Alaska likely will change in coming decades. |
The Alaska Garden Helper demonstrates for growers the on-the-ground effects of future shifts in climate.
The easy-to-use tool allows
individuals to investigate their specific communities, from Ketchikan to
Utqiaġvik. They can see projected changes in growing season length,
annual minimum temperature and hardiness zones.
The tool also provides graphs of the
expected change in growing-degree days, a measure of cumulative heat
energy available for the growing season and a critical variable for some
crops.
A team led by Nancy Fresco, network coordinator at UAF’s Scenarios Network for Alaska and Arctic Planning, developed the Alaska Garden Helper.
SNAP created the tool in collaboration with the Alaska Climate Adaptation Science Center and the U.S. Department of Agriculture. Fresco also worked with researchers from UAF’s Department of Natural Resources and Environment, the Alaska Peony Growers Association, farmers in the Fairbanks area and skilled climate modelers.
The goal wasn’t solely to produce a practical tool for gardeners, Fresco said.
“None of us are under the impression
that agriculturalists in Alaska are currently planning their planting
seasons as far out as 2099,” she said. “We also wanted to put the
effects of climate change into a practical context for people, and to
empower people with the full dataset that our scientists work with.”
Climate change will likely affect
each crop differently. Earlier planting seasons, earlier and greater
accumulations of growing-degree days, and fewer cold-limiting
temperatures are expected.
The tool’s data comes from a coarse
climate model updated with local topographic and climate information to
make it usable at finer scales. This process, referred to as dynamical
downscaling, is a focus of the Alaska CASC. The technique was used by
UAF’s Rick Lader, John Walsh, Uma Bhatt and Peter Bienieck, as well as
others, to develop the daily climate data, the tool’s backbone. Computer programmer Alec Bennett and other team members then developed the web-accessible tool.
“Everything has been collaborative in this project,” Fresco said.
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| Peonies bloom in midsummer at Far North Flowers in the Fairbanks area. A new web tool from UAF scientists helps show how climate change likely will affect Alaska crops such as peonies. Photo by Krista Heeringa |
The team anticipates the tool will
have other applications and open new avenues for research. There is
interest in expanding it to include native flora. While seasonally
cultivated crops are usually not limited by winter cold temperatures,
native plants may be affected by changing temperature minimums
differently.
Warmer temperatures also may increase
the likelihood of crop pests traditionally held at bay by Alaska’s
formidable winters. Shifts in growing season timing also will affect
other parts of the complex agricultural economy. One example is the
growing Alaska peony market, where the unique midsummer bloom drives
sales.
While the tool highlights some
negative impacts, it presents a largely positive look at the
opportunities Alaskans can find in a changing climate. Fresco and the
SNAP team hope the tool will help people not only grow food locally but
also understand the changing climate’s impact on agriculture and
gardening in their communities.
“Not every community has a garden now,” Fresco said, “but every community could consider one for their future food security.”
Michael DeLue is a science communicator with Scenarios Network for Alaska and Arctic Planning and the Alaska Climate Adaptation Science Center.
ADDITIONAL CONTACT: Nancy Fresco, nlfresco@alaska.edu, 907-474-2405
